It may be an understatement to say that Bobby Bowden had a run-centric background. As evidenced by this classic scene from the movie We Are Marshall

Bowden was once the master of the Veer option offense that is about as ground-oriented as it gets. This approach led to his 1975 West Virginia team running the ball 588 times while throwing it only 192 times.

Bowden eventually moved to an I-formation offense at Florida State, but he was still a proponent of running the ball. His 1980 Seminoles had 601 rushes versus only 232 passes.

His run-first approach started to change once Florida State began its dynastic run in 1987. This success allowed Bowden to recruit top-level talent from around the country. One of these players was Charlie Ward, a basketball point guard who eventually had an 11-year NBA career at that position. With Ward under center, Bowden decided to switch to a fast break passing game. That decision resulted in Ward leading the nation in touchdown passes in 1993.

Bowden later explained why he made this change. He understood that even though his squad had elite talent across the board, there are structural limitations inherent to every football team. A team must have an identity. Something has to be primary, and something has to be secondary.

That realization led Bowden to proclaim that a team can be great at passing and good at running, or great at running and good at passing. It cannot be great at passing and great at running. It must choose which is the primary and which is the secondary.

Andy Reid’s play calling preference

Andy Reid has always made it clear that passing is his preference for the primary. Reid once told John Clayton half-jokingly that he would call a pass on every play if he could.

Reid wasn’t able to go that route when he arrived in Kansas City in 2013. Alex Smith was a solid quarterback but not someone a coach would want to throw the ball 600+ times. This is why Reid’s first four Chiefs teams were in the upper half of the league in rush attempts and finished 20th, 28th, 29th and 25th, respectively, in pass attempts. Even with that ground-centric lean, Kansas City had enough play calling prowess and on-field talent to rank 12^th in scoring over the course of those four seasons (per Stathead).

Reid never got away from wanting to throw the ball, which is why Kansas City drafted Tyreek Hill in 2016. That move soon corresponded with Reid going for broke in upgrading the quarterback position. The Chiefs sent two first-round picks and a third round selection to the Bills to move up to the No. 10 pick in the 2017 NFL Draft to select Patrick Mahomes (a move Buffalo laments to this very day).

With the trio of Hill, Mahomes and Travis Kelce in place, Reid naturally shifted towards making passing the primary element in the Kansas City offense. The Chiefs pass volume spiked (top nine rankings in pass attempts in every season but one since then), but more importantly, Kansas City also posted fantastic pass expected points added (EPA) numbers from 2019 to 2022.

Passing EPA

2018: 253.11, ranked first

2019: 188.85, ranked first

2020: 226.00, ranked third

2021: 180.94, ranked second

2022: 195.91, ranked first

Now contrast those figures to the Chiefs rush game EPA in that same time frame.

Rushing EPA

2018: 31.28, ranked fourth

2019: -1.19, ranked ninth

2020: 19.44, ranked 13th

2021: 32.94, ranked seventh

2022: 48.92, ranked fifth

That’s the statistical framework of a great passing game combined with a very good rushing attack.

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Kansas City’s passing game fall from greatness

Things started to change when Hill left for Miami in 2021. The Chiefs wide receiver corps saw a massive drop off in talent, but Reid and Mahomes were able to hold off an EPA decline for a year. That regression couldn’t be avoided starting in 2023 and it led to a huge reduction in pass EPA in 2023-2025.

Passing EPA

2023: 61.86, ranked 16th

2024: 106.09, ranked 11th

2025: 66.93, ranked 14th

Now compare that to the Chiefs rush EPA figures in those seasons.

Rushing EPA

2023: 6.08, ranked 12th

2024: 13.30, ranked 13th

2025: 35.44, ranked sixth

Those numbers indicate a team that is good at passing and rushing and not great in either category.

Reid has been trying his best to get the Chiefs passing game back into the great category. He’s said every season over the past three years that Kansas City is going all out to upgrade its aerial attack, yet that move back to greatness just hasn’t happened.

Talent is a big part of the problem. Travis Kelce is still a good tight end but he’s not what he used to be. Rashee Rice has elite skills, but he also has recurring off field issues and is coming off of what is easily the worst statistical season of his NFL career.

Xavier Worthy is a multi-talented pass catcher who is the team’s best short pass wide receiver and a top red zone threat, but he’s also only 165 pounds and has never posted more than 79 scrimmage plays in a college or pro season. He’s a good cog in the machine but not the type of player who can push a passing game into overdrive.

Combine those issues with Mahomes suffering another knee injury and it may explain why Kansas City signed Kenneth Walker III to a three-year, $45 million contract. Reid may have decided another approach is necessary to get this team back to winning Super Bowls.

Walker gives Reid another path to play calling greatness

It’s not as if the Chiefs were ineffective at running the ball in 2025. As noted earlier, Kansas City ranked sixth in rush EPA last season. This was due in part to Reid’s innovative run play calling. He has a seemingly endless array of creative key busters built into his ground game plan.

These innovations got the most out of Kareem Hunt last year. He had 27 rushing plays with an EPA mark of 1.0 or higher. That total ranked tied for 13th and placed Hunt slightly behind Walker, whose 29 plays of 1+ EPA ranked tied for 11th.

Consider that achievement for a moment. Reid got nearly as many impact EPA plays out of 30-year Kareem Hunt as Seattle got out of 25-year old Kenneth Walker. To be fair, Walker was in a platoon with Zach Charbonnet for most of the season, but this still speaks volumes for how adept Reid is at run play calling.

That trait suggests Reid can get even more big plays out of a 26-year old Walker. The Chiefs could also bring Hunt back for 2026. If that happens, Reid will have the option of going with a platoon with Walker as the 1A and Hunt as the 1B, or to have Walker be the lead back and Hunt serve as a highly utilized alternate back.

Whichever way he goes, Reid now has ample run game talent to work with. He isn’t going to take the Bowden approach of a 3-1 lean in favor of the run, but instead could turn this into offense something like what Joe Gibbs operated during the Washington Redskins dynasty days. Lean on a bruising ground game, mix in a solid amount of safe short passes and then counterpunch with ruthlessly effective long passes when the defense overplays the run.

That’s an approach that has won multiple Super Bowls over the years. Since Reid and Mahomes are more interested in winning rings than stat building, this is something they can both buy into.

If it works, it may be just what Kansas City needs to raise another Lombardi Trophy.

Walker’s fantasy football value

It’s way too early to tell exactly where things will play out in the 2026 fantasy rankings, but the early TFS projection is that Kansas City will bring Hunt back. They will then go with Walker as the 1A platoon but will end pushing that work level to the border of lead back status. That’s more than enough to give Walker a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 valuation. If Hunt doesn’t return and Walker gets true lead back status, he will then be a mid-tier RB1.

This first came to mind after running the 2025 Seahawks numbers through my historical power rankings system. This system uses over 20 parameters to grade NFL teams on a 1-100 scale. Mike Macdonald’s squad ended up with a 93.30 score. For perspective, that rates the 2025 Seahawks as the 16^th greatest team in NFL history and easily rates ahead of the 2013 Seahawks (87.66) as the top team in franchise history.

A deeper look at the numbers bears this ranking out. This team excelled in every manner possible.

Seattle’s 14-3 regular season mark set a franchise record for regular season wins. The Seahawks were tied for the best record in the NFL despite playing in what was indisputably the toughest division in the league. Seattle’s three losses were by a combined total of nine points.

The Seahawks also defeated two of their division foes in the playoffs. Their 35-point win over San Francisco in the Wild Card round was tied with Seattle’s Super Bowl XLVIII victory over Denver for the biggest playoff point differential in Seattle history. It is only the 26^th time that a team has won a playoff game by 35 or more points and is the first time that’s happened since the 2014 season. To do this after losing to San Francisco in Week 1 and winning a 13-3 slugfest over the 49ers in Week 18 speaks volumes for the Seahawks ability to step up in the postseason.

Defensive brilliance

Next up is Macdonald’s specialty. This may sound blasphemous to some Seahawks fans, but The Dark Side defense was every bit as good as the Legion of Boom.

First in points allowed

First by a solid margin in expected points added

First in points per drive

Tied for first in adjusted net yards per pass attempt

Second in scoring drive percentage

Tied for second in yards per play

Third in hurry rate

Fifth in red zone scoring percentage

Sixth in opponent turnover drive rate

Sixth in pass pressure rate

Seattle’s offense wasn’t quite at the level of its defense, but this platoon was still one of the top offenses in the league. The Seahawks offense ranked third in points scored, second in net yards per pass attempt, tied for fourth in offensive yards per play, sixth in drive success rate and ninth in passing offense EPA.

If these two areas weren’t enough, Seattle’s special teams ranked second in overall EPA.

Using the credibility firewall

The stats are quite powerful, but the truth is this team will be remembered for even more than that. This stems from the organization’s response to the 2024 season.

Seattle barely missed the playoffs with a 10-7 record in that campaign. The Seahawks ended on a strong note, going 6-2 after starting the season 4-5.

Most franchises in this situation would have been content with a double-digit win total. Most rookie head coaches would have been thrilled. The collective response would have been to try to add to the existing base and build upon that mark.

That wasn’t the case with Macdonald and General Manager John Schneider. Macdonald wanted his team to have a certain identity football-wise, and he was frustrated that the 2024 squad just didn’t have that identity.

What Macdonald and Schneider did next brings to mind how Hall of Fame baseball manager Earl Weaver would react whenever his Baltimore Orioles had a strong season.

Weaver figured that whenever he was in that situation, he had more leeway to take chances. If he decided to make a controversial move, people would say, hey, this guy knows what he’s doing. If that move took some time to pan out, Weaver would have a credibility firewall to keep him from taking too much heat.

This is exactly the approach Weaver used with the Cal Ripkin Jr. situation at the start of Ripkin’s career. Ripkin had atrocious batting numbers in his first 40 games with the club and there was a lot of pressure on Weaver to bench him.

Weaver might have been forced to yield to that pressure in many situations, but his Orioles squads won 100+ games in the 1979 and 1980 campaigns. It meant Weaver had that credibility firewall and could stick to his guns when it came to keeping Ripkin in the lineup. The stubbornness panned out when Ripkin was named AL Rookie of the Year at the end of the 1982 season.

Macdonald and Schneider saw that they had some of that leeway due to the double-digit win total. They decided to use that benefit of the doubt to go after Sam Darnold.

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Concentrate on what a player can do

The Vikings gave up on Darnold even after they posted a 14-3 mark with him under center in 2024. The Minnesota brain trust didn’t see that as enough. They looked at Darnold’s relatively high interception rate (something he’s struggled with throughout his career) and terrible performance against the Rams in the 2024 NFC Wild Card game as indicators of an unacceptable ceiling level.

Macdonald and Schneider saw this situation and took the Bill Walsh approach. Walsh got frustrated when his scouts would concentrate their analysis on what a player couldn’t do. He would remind them that their job was to tell Walsh what a player can do so that Walsh and his coaches could build a gameplan around those talents.

Macdonald and Schneider took some heat for the move, but keep in mind that Darnold was a superb college quarterback who led the nation in YPA and YPC in his sophomore season at USC. Much of Darnold’s subpar NFL performances could be attributed to playing on teams that were mediocre at best and atrocious at worse. In his one pro season in a strong offense with a skilled play caller (his 2024 campaign), Darnold threw for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns.

Seattle provided Darnold with the same caliber of surrounding talent and play calling that Minnesota had. He responded with some of the best passing numbers of his career, but it’s what happened when things went south that really turned this into a season worth remembering.

Trust requires faith

The real key to Darnold’s 2025 success was how Macdonald trusted him following Darnold’s Week 11 implosion against the Rams.

That game was the first time Darnold had faced Los Angeles since the Wild Card debacle. The rematch didn’t go any better. Darnold threw four interceptions and posted a dismal 2.25 adjusted yards per attempt. He looked every bit as rattled in that contest as he did in the Wild Card matchup and seemed to show that the Vikings were correct in their assessment of Darnold’s ceiling.

A lot of coaches would have fallen prey to their fears and lost their faith in Darnold at that point. Macdonald decided to go a different route by channeling the Bud Grant approach to kickers. Grant said if you have a good kicker, you can trust that player even after he has a bad game because you know he is a good kicker and even the best players are going to have bad games.

Fred Cox had to kick in some of the worst weather conditions in the NFL and thus had his share of bad games, yet from 1967-1976 he had the eighth highest field goal conversion rate in regular and postseason games (per Stathead). Cox did what he needed to do more than often enough to earn Grant’s trust and that allowed Grant to have faith in Cox through the tough times.

Macdonald showed that type of trust with Darnold. The Seahawks didn’t scale their passing game plan back in the Week 12 matchup against Tennessee. They instead allowed Darnold to continue to aggressively attack like he had all season. This led to Darnold going 11 for 17 for 195 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in the first half and first drive of the third quarter. By that point, Seattle had a 23-3 lead, at which point they scaled things back on the way to a 30-24 win.

The Seahawks carried this trust over to the two other games against the Rams. Darnold completed 47 of 70 passes for 616 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions in those contests.

Darnold brought Seattle back from a 30-14 fourth quarter deficit in the regular season game and led the game winning touchdown drive in overtime. He then went toe-to-toe with NFL MVP Matthew Stafford in the scoreboard shootout that was the Divisional playoff game. These two contests illustrated Darnold’s true ceiling.

Don’t let fear rule your personnel decisions

It sounds so easy to have trust in your players, but how many teams would have screwed this up? The Vikings certainly did. They just couldn’t deal with Darnold’s occasional bad performances. Justin Jefferson understood this, which is why he publicly stated that Minnesota could have made it to the Super Bowl with Darnold at quarterback.

That statement clarified that the Darnold situation rattled the Vikings. It was almost certainly part of why Minnesota fired General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah in January, but reading between the lines of this article at The Athletic suggests that the coaching staff may have been more to blame for throwing in the towel on Darnold.

Whoever’s fault it was, it was clear Minnesota overreacted to the Wild Card loss against the Rams. They let myriad fears rule their personnel decisions instead of keeping the faith. Many teams do this, and it’s a big part of why they fail.

Schneider and Macdonald knew better than to do that. They looked past those doubts and instead had confidence in what Darnold could do for their club. It led to one of the greatest seasons in NFL history, but the Seahawks low-key approach means that it’s a performance that may not be recognized for its true greatness until the passage of time inevitably clarifies it.

One of the main reasons Walker did so well is that offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and run game coordinator Rick Dennison put together a very effective rushing game plan. Let’s dive into the tape for some details.

(If you want to follow along with this video analysis, go to YouTube and search for the video titled “Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots | Super Bowl LX Game Highlights” on the NFL’s YouTube channel (it’s the one that lasts 23 minutes and 11 seconds). I would embed these links directly into this article but the NFL has blocked this video from being posted on Substack.)

Let’s start with the first play of game (which is at 0:18 of that aforementioned video). Seattle ran an outside zone play. This is an off tackle run but every offense would like to bounce this type of run play to the perimeter whenever possible.

Since the bane of rush defense is having a ball carrier get to the perimeter, it means means defenses are usually structured to not let that happen on an outside zone play.

The Patriots did not have that type of structure on this play. New England linebacker Anfernee Jennings was the end man on the line of scrimmage to that side. He was lined up in what some coaches will call an 8-technique, where he is head up over the outside tight end in a wing formation. That technique makes it much easier for a blocker to seal the edge of the defense inside, which is exactly what happened.

This issue was compounded by the fact that the Patriots ended up playing Cover 3 on this play. That type of coverage means the cornerbacks are stay in coverage players and only offer run support once it becomes 100 percent clear that the play isn’t a pass.

Walker bounced to the outside of this structural weakness and gained 10 yards, but that’s only part of the story. As noted earlier, outside zone plays don’t typically go to the perimeter. Walker not only hit the perimeter, but he was looking for it as soon as he received the handoff. He turned almost 90 degrees right after the snap and thus had his shoulders aimed towards the sideline. That’s an atypical way to receive a handoff and is usually only done when the offense thinks the running back will be able to bounce.

It was only the beginning of Walker looking for bounces and finding them with great success.

The next instance of this occurred in the second quarter (see 4:26 of that video). Seattle ran an outside zone variation where the outside blocker blocks down and a puller leads the play to the corner. This type of adjustment happens when the offense calls an outside zone play but the defense is lined up in an unfavorable look that type of run.

The defensive key for the outside defender on this play is the same as it was on the very first play of the game - set an edge and don’t let the running back bounce to the outside. Patriots linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson took the correct angle to make this happen and even pushed Seattle guard Grey Zabel into the backfield, but Zabel was able to adjust and get Chaisson’s outside shoulder turned partially inside.

Walker once again had a 90-degree stance at the handoff and thus was angled to be able to look for a bounce. He had no choice but to try it going outside since New England defensive tackle Christian Barmore blasted into the backfield from the other side. It was a combination that let Walker hit the perimeter untouched and it led to a 30-yard gain.

By that point the Patriots were extremely concerned about Walker bouncing plays to the outside. That’s when the Seahawks started to mix things up.

Two plays after the 30-yard gain, Seattle ran an inside zone play (it’s at 4:44 of that video). Walker turned his shoulders 90 degrees to make it look like he was going to take the play outside. New England linebacker Jack Gibbens saw the shoulder fake and made sure he got outside leverage on his blocker. That reaction worked against him, as it opened up an inside lane that Walker was able to hit for 29 yards.

The Patriots defense tightened up after that, which is partly due to Mike Vrabel’s adjustments. He said to the sideline reporter at halftime that the Patriots defense wasn’t playing the rush properly and that they needed to protect the edges more. That renewed emphasis worked through the third quarter, but midway through the fourth quarter the Seattle coaching staff found an opportunity to attack the perimeter again.

This play is at 18:28 of that video. New England again had an 8-technique who reacted a step late and got blocked inside. The Patriots were also running a 6-2 front with Cover 3 behind it, so there was no one in position to keep the play from going outside. Walker hit the perimeter and tallied another double-digit gain, this one for 14 yards.

On the next play (18:40 in that video), the Patriots moved one of those box players to an overhang position just outside of the tackle box. The Seahawks reacted with a duo run call. That’s a power without pull call that gives the ball carrier an inside and an outside attack option. It’s a great call in this situation and Walker waited patiently for the blocking to develop. When it did, he hit an open gap and racked up 10 yards.

These last two plays were key in Seattle kicking a field goal to go up 22-7 with 5:38 left in the fourth quarter and effectively put the game away. They were a combination of superb run play calling, terrific blocking and great running back reads.

That combination may be boring to some, but to tape junkies like myself and many of you, those plays made the Seattle run game portion of this contest a thing of beauty.

Get on the Ashton Jeanty fantasy bandwagon

Kubiak just took the head coaching job in Las Vegas and brought Dennison with him as the run game coordinator. This means fantasy managers should plan on getting on the Ashton Jeanty bandwagon. Jeanty failed to live up to his mid-tier RB1 ADP last season by ranking 16th in RB PPR PPG, but he did show some signs of the brilliance he displayed in college. Kubiak and Dennison’s play calling prowess ought to get Jeanty to that collegiate form on a more consistent basis. It should lead to a RB1-caliber season in Jeanty’s sophomore campaign.

Photo of the day

We have a lot of great parks in Central Florida. The owl in this photo calls Meade Gardens home. It took some effort for Mrs. Scientist to get this picture (she had to quietly chase the owl down after it flew by) but it was worth it for a shot like this one.

To be fair, the Patriots franchise has been in plenty of Super Bowls, but how many people see the Mike Vrabel/Drake Maye squad and think of this as an extension of the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady New England teams that, to be blunt, we were damn sick and tired of seeing in Super Bowls. Outside of seeing the Krafts and Josh McDaniels, this is an entirely different club.

The Mike Macdonald Seattle Seahawks are a refreshing change of Super Bowl pace. Macdonald is a brilliant coach who didn’t need anything from a Connor Stalions-type to be one of the best defensive coaches in the NCAA or NFL. His Seahawks are so good at stopping the opposition’s rushing attack that Seattle posted a 41.06 rush defense EPA in 2025. To put that into perspective, that’s only the sixth time in the past six seasons that a team has posted a 40+ rush defense EPA.

What makes that number even more impressive is that Seattle had the second lowest percentage of stacked boxes in the 2025 season (13.2 percent per the NFL Pro database). It takes a brilliant defensive play caller to post that caliber of EPA while not loading the box, but that’s just what Macdonald and defensive coordinator Aden Durde are capable of. They know how to adjust their defensive fronts to shut down the run while still playing to stop the pass.

It’s the type of Super Bowl matchup that brings to mind a change of pace Super Bowl such as Super Bowl XVI. San Francisco and Cincinnati had never been to a Super Bowl (or even an NFL or AFL title game prior to the development of the Super Bowl in 1966). Super Bowl XX (Chicago-New England) and Super Bowl XXXIV (St. Louis-Tennessee) also land in this category.

On a related note, that Rams-Titans Super Bowl XXIV game brings to mind the movie American Underdog.

I just watched that film for the first time a couple of weeks ago. I was thinking it was going to be a sappy, preachy movie, but was pleasantly surprised that it was a well-acted, well-directed story that has just a slight amount of message. Much of the movie concentrates on Kurt and Brenda Warner’s relationship and how the strength of that relationship was key to Kurt keeping his football dream alive when by all accounts it should have been dead.

This is my favorite clip from the film.

It was so down to earth that it’s played multiple times on my computer screen while doing game tape breakdowns. It felt like the kind of story that Hollywood used to tell all of the time. I enjoyed it so much that I watched it a couple of times with Mrs. Scientist. When I told her that an independent production company had produced the film, she said that she hoped this generated more than enough profit to have that company produce a lot more films like it.

Now let’s take a look at what tonight’s game has to offer.

We’ve already started with the Seahawks incredible rush defense. That could be a big problem for a New England offense that ranked 23rd in offensive rush EPA this season (-1.54).

That could mean the Patriots path to victory is through the air. New England is certainly capable of doing that following a regular season where the Patriots posted a league-leading 207 pass EPA. The problem there is Seattle had a 24.88 pass EPA allowed mark that was fourth best in that category.

Missed tackles could be a huge factor. The Patriots missed fewer tackles than any team in the NFL this season (71, per Pro Football Reference). By contrast, Seattle had the 10th highest volume of missed tackles (110). Seahawks cornerback Riq Woolen is the name to watch here. His 12.8 percent missed tackle rate is easily the highest among starting cornerbacks or safeties in this game.

As was the case in the Divisional round preview, the magic number for this contest is 20. New England is 6-3 when allowing 20+ points this year, versus an 11-0 mark when the allow fewer than 20 points. Seattle is 14-1 when scoring 20+ points this year and 2-2 when posting fewer than 20 points.

The key for the Patriots to keep the Seahawks under 20 points is stopping Jaxon Smith-Njigba. It’s possible that New England could put Christian Gonzalez on him all game long, but JSN’s route tree is expansive and Seattle’s coaching staff is very good at getting him away from man coverage.

That’s why my pick at The Athletic (which can be found in the Super Bowl 60 staff picks article) has Seattle topping that 20-point mark and winning by a 27-17 score.

Photo of the day

Today’s photo of the day was taken at the Mead Botanical Garden in Orlando. Mrs. Scientist has a knack for finding the right moment when animals are almost posing for the picture. This turtle looks like it wants her to get its good side for the picture. You can find more of her photos (and help support her budding photography career) at Flash Art Photography.

When Harbaugh was fired, there was all manner of discussion as to the internal politics of the situation. There were pundits saying Harbaugh had lost the team, while others said he hadn’t. There were on- and off-the-record quotes, tales that Harbaugh and Jackson were not getting along, and suggestions that Harbaugh was let go because he wouldn’t change his offensive coordinator.

Those all make for great conversation, but I think the reality is much simpler than this. It boils down to this – Lamar Jackson wants to become the focal point of an aerial-centric offense.

Jackson made this clear prior to the 2023 season. The Ravens brought in Todd Monken as offensive coordinator. Jackson was so fired up for the change away from the Greg Roman offense that he said he was going to throw the ball 500 times in this new offense. It wasn’t hyperbole, as Jackson had 457 pass attempts that season.

That pass number moved even higher in 2024, with Jackson throwing a career-high 474 passes. He made the most of those throws. Jackson led the league in yards per attempt, adjusted YPA, QB rating, QBR, net YPA, adjusted net YPA and touchdown percentage.

It brought to mind Randall Cunningham’s memorable 1998 campaign when he made the switch from run-centric quarterback and led the league in QB rating, net and adjusted net YPA and touchdown percentage. The big difference is Jackson had Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely as his top four pass catchers. Cunningham had Randy Moss and Cris Carter, two Hall of Famers. For Jackson to do this with what was a B- to B-plus receiving corps was beyond impressive.

At that point, Jackson had to figure he’d done everything needed to show Baltimore’s powers that be that they should funnel the offense, and by proxy the entire team, through his passing skills. Instead, the Ravens added Derrick Henry and showed that they were still going with the run-heavy approach.

That had to be frustrating enough, but then the Ravens allowed 37+ points in four of the first five games of the 2025 season. That’s a situation that calls for a team to get into scoreboard shootout mode led by the passing attack. When Baltimore didn’t go with a pass-centric route during that span (the Ravens posted 200 or fewer net passing yards in three of those four games with 37+ points allowed) and got out to a 1-4 start, it became clear to Jackson that his visions of being a pass-centric quarterback just weren’t going to come true.

That’s probably why once he got hurt, Jackson seemed to check out on the 2025 campaign. He proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he was capable of leading an elite passing attack, yet the organization simply wasn’t going to move in that direction.

It’s clear why the Ravens didn’t do this. To change to a pass-centric mode requires an organizational shift. You need pass blocking specialists, better receivers and a defense made to play from ahead. To say it another way, you probably need to be something like the Peyton Manning/Tony Dungy Colts. That’s not what Baltimore was during the Harbaugh era, and it was never going to be that way with Harbaugh in charge.

The problem for Jackson is it almost certainly won’t be that way with Jesse Minter in charge, either. Minter is a brilliant defensive coach, and he’s very much a Jim Harbaugh-style coach who is likely to try to win with a strong defense and a powerhouse rushing attack rather than go pass-happy.

(On a related note, if you want to see just how good of a coach Minter is, check out this clip on YouTube. It’s from Minter’s contribution to the Gaylor Family Benefit Whiteboard Clinic. Please use this CoachTube affiliate link if you want to purchase this entire portion of this terrific resource).

If Minter doesn’t funnel the team through Jackson’s skills, the football world may be having the same conversations next year about Jackson’s unhappiness with the way things are going. Let’s hope that doesn’t occur, but if it does, Baltimore ought not be surprised. It’s clear what Jackson wants. The Ravens know this and they need to find a way to keep their franchise quarterback happy if they don’t want to see a repeat scenario.

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Photo of the Day

Mrs. Scientist is always on the lookout for unique photos. One of those opportunities showed up when a hawk landed on a homemade log swing in our neighborhood. The hawk is as comfortable as can be despite squirrels, cars and various other noises going around. It stayed that was as she moved around and took what had to be 10-15 photos.

To see more of Mrs. Scientist’s photographic talents (and to support her budding photography career), check out her website Flash Art Photography.

(Related note: I write an NFL picks article every week for The Athletic that has picks to win and picks to cover. Here is the link to this week’s Divisional edition.)

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos

This game will likely be decided by the Buffalo rush offense vs Denver rush defense matchup.

The Bills ground game has been about as good as it gets of late. From Weeks 12-18, Buffalo leads the league in rush attempts, is second in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns and is fourth in yards per carry. The amazing part of that is Josh Allen rushed for only 38 yards per game in that span. That’s a very good pace but it’s not elite. This shows just how valuable James Cook is.

The Broncos may be able to offset this. Denver’s defense ranks sixth in rush yards allowed since Week 13. If the Broncos continue this pace, they should win handily. If Buffalo wins this battle, the Bills can pull off the upset.

Another major issue in this contest is Buffalo’s injuries. The Bills will be without starting safety Jordan Poyer, backup cornerback Maxwell Hairston and wide receiver Tyrell Shavers. Buffalo linebacker Terrel Bernard is questionable, as is defensive tackle Ed Oliver and running back Ty Johnson. Denver basically has no one injured (two players are listed as out but they played a total of three games this year). It’s in the Broncos favor to turn this into a depth contest.

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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

This game also has rushing matchup subplots. San Francisco was 3-4 this year when allowing 125+ rush yards. Seattle has rushed for 125+ yards in seven of its last nine games.

The Seahawks gave up 119 rush yards in the Week 1 loss against the 49ers, but held San Francisco to only 53 ground yards in the Week 18 contest that decided the NFC West.

Since that latter game was a slugfest, what this says is whoever controls the tempo of this game wins it. That may make San Francisco press Brock Purdy to be very aggressive in the passing game.

Another factor that could lean in the 49ers favor in a higher flying game is Sam Darnold’s oblique injury. This caused him to have a limited practice on Friday and to be listed as questionable on the Friday injury report. If Darnold is hampered by this ailment and San Francisco’s offense finds a way to get out of that Week 18 slugfest mode, it could be the path to victory for the 49ers.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots

Some games have a magic number for scoring. This is one of those games.

Houston is 12-0 this year when scoring 20 or more points. New England is 9-0 when allowing fewer than 20 points. The Texans are 1-5 when scoring fewer than 20 points. The Patriots are 6-3 when allowing 20+ points.

That may seem to bode well for Houston since the Texans have scored 20 or more points in eight straight games, but New England has allowed only 23 points in its last three games combined.

As great as that sounds for the Patriots, one of those games was against a Jets offense with Brady Cook under center. Another was against a Miami team that looked listless in what was Mike McDaniel’s last game with the club. The Wild Card win over the Chargers may seem more impressive, but as was noted in the one thought Wild Card review article, Los Angeles just couldn’t get anything going with Omarion Hampton hurt. Combine that with the Chargers blocking woes, Justin Herbert being banged up and it being a cross-country road matchup for LA and that’s just not a recipe for success.

This is all to say that as great as New England’s defense has played of late, a lot of it was due to favorable circumstances. The Texans offense doesn’t have Nico Collins, but this is still a platoon quite capable of posting 20+ points. If that happens, Drake Maye will need to play to that MVP candidate level against a powerhouse Houston defense or else it may be a disappointing home loss for the Patriots.

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears

Last week’s one thought preview on the NFL Wild Card games illustrated how the Rams’ pass coverage issue are leading this team to get into far too many scoreboard shootouts (defined as when each team scores 24+ points). That has not been a favorable way to go for Los Angeles this year, as the Rams are 3-4 in scoreboard shootouts this year following the Wild Card win over Carolina. Chicago is much more comfortable in scoreboard shootout mode, going 5-2 in those types of contests this season.

The Rams also have some serious special teams issue. Per PFR, Los Angeles has a posted a negative special teams expected points added (STEPA) in 13 out of its 18 games this year. By contrast, Chicago has posted a positive STEPA mark in 14 of its 18 games. Don’t be surprised if this huge special teams disparity leads to a Bears upset win in this one.

Photo of the day

Today’s photo of the day was a fun one to get. This was at Sylvan Lake Park in Sanford, FL. We had just crossed a bridge when Mrs. Scientist spotted this deer under the bridge. It turns out that the water is shallow enough that the deer (one of a family of four that lives at the park) are able to cross under it. We stayed quiet and since the deer are somewhat used to humans nearby, she was able to get an entire collection of photos, some of which were not more than 10 feet away. You can see much more of her work (and help support her budding photography career) at Flash Art Photography.

Los Angeles Rams 34, Carolina Panthers 31

It’s not surprising that the Rams got into a scoreboard shootout (defined as when both teams score 24+ points). Their defense has major issues in vertical pass coverage (something discussed in last week’s One Thought on Every Game preview) and the Rams are the only team to score 500+ points this year.

Is that a path they can replicate on the way to a Super Bowl win? Let’s run some numbers to find out.

We’ll start with an updated version of a study on the success rate of 500+ point offenses in scoreboard shootout games. It used to be that 500+ points team fared quite well here. Up until the 2010 season, these squads were 52-13-1 in these contests, a win rate of 79.5 percent (ties are listed as half a win in this system).

That rate has been dropping since then. From 2011 through today, 500+ point teams are 83-45, a win rate of 64.8 percent. Since 2020, 500+ point teams are 35-25, a win of 58.3 percent.

The odds that a team with a 58.3 percent win rate will win three consecutive games is only 19.8 percent. That assumes the Rams are at that level, but they aren’t. Including this victory over Carolina, a team that is easily the worst team in this postseason tournament, Los Angeles is now 3-4 in scoreboard shootouts. Multiply that win rate by three straight games and it equals a meager 7.9 percent.

The fact is that the Rams have to avoid scoreboard shootouts if they are to have any reasonable chance at making it to Super Bowl LX.

Chicago Bears 31, Green Bay Packers 27

Since we’re on the subject of scoreboard shootouts, it’s worth pointing out that Chicago is 5-2 in those types of contests this season. That was nearly inevitable in this game given the volume of subpar coverage players (as noted in the Wild Card preview). It bodes for the Rams-Bears matchup to land in the same high scoring category.

It should also be noted that Chicago did not have a single punt in this game. Part of that was because the Bears only have 10 drives in this game (a relatively low number). Another reason is that Chicago lost the ball on downs twice in the second quarter. Combine that with two interceptions and it shows that Ben Johnson understood a scoreboard shootout was in the works. That understanding may be why the Bears have tended to fare better in that type of contest than the Rams.

Buffalo Bills 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 24

Josh Allen is rightfully and understandably getting a ton of kudos for his performance in this game. After looking over the numbers, what really stands out about this contest is just how much Trevor Lawrence has to carry the Jaguars passing game.

Jacksonville got a great performance out of Parker Washington. He caught seven out of 12 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown despite having to leave the game at one point to be checked for a concussion.

Now look at the rest of the Jaguars passing offense. Travis Etienne caught five out of five targets for 49 yards and a score. The remainder of the Jacksonville pass catchers tallied only six catches on 13 targets for 51 yards and one touchdown. Brian Thomas and Jakobi Meyers combined for just three catches for 33 yards.

Meyers has played well enough to get a large contract extension and Washington looks like he may be the real deal, but the reality is neither one of them is a true WR1. Thomas was in that category last year, and but he hasn’t been that this year. To be fair, Thomas was dealing with wrist, shoulder and ankle injuries this season, but this may also be a classic case of a sophomore slump.

Whichever it is, the Bills had depth players step up with big pass plays. The Jaguars didn’t have that and they weren’t getting enough out of their starters. It was just enough to end the run of what may have been the hottest team in the NFL headed into the playoffs.

San Francisco 49ers 23, Philadelphia Eagles 19

If you want to be instantly smarter about football, you need to be following Coach Dan Casey on one of his social media platforms (he’s on YouTube, X and Instagram). He made a fantastic point about Christian McCaffrey’s game winning touchdown catch.

This is technically not a Texas route but rather a Texas route combination. In this route combination, the tight end runs a seam route to clear out the middle of the field. The running back usually lines up on the same side as the tight end and runs an angle route. That’s a route where the running back leaves the backfield at a 45-degree angle aiming outside of the offensive tackle. Once the running back gets a couple of yards upfield, he then turns 90 degrees and cuts towards the middle of the field. When run to the left, the angle route kind of looks like the less than sign (think “<”).

My understanding of why this is called a Texas route combination is that Mike Holmgren, who either created it or popularized it, said when this route combination is run against certain coverages, it will lead to a hole in the defensive coverage the size of Texas.

Casey points out that this Texas route combination was different because McCaffrey was lined up on the opposite side of the backfield. When CMC goes across the formation, the defense will usually read it as if he is scanning for blitz or pass rush pickups. The last thing a defense will figure on is McCaffrey then running the low side of a Texas combination.

What also makes this interesting is that the Texas route combo is usually used in the open field where there is plenty of room for the Texas-sized hole to open. That Kyle Shanahan called it this close to the goal line shows that when the game was on the line, he won the play calling battle against Vic Fangio. And that’s why the 49ers advanced to the NFC Divisional round.

New England Patriots 16, Los Angeles Chargers 3

The key to this game was whether or not Omarion Hampton would be able to play. He technically did play, but getting two offensive snaps and only one carry indicates he was just a decoy. It was gamesmanship from Jim Harbaugh that didn’t work. It’s not as if the Chargers lacked investments in the ground game headed into this season. It’s just that this group had so many injuries that they only had Kimani Vidal to go with in a road playoff game. It wasn’t anywhere near enough.

Houston Texans 30, Pittsburgh Steelers 6

Al Davis said that a coach has about 10 years before his team will start tuning him out. A study I did a few years back shows that’s probably closer to 12 years, but Davis was right in that even the best coaches in NFL history find it quite difficult to get their teams to title contention after the 10-to-12-year mark.

Keep that in mind regarding Mike Tomlin. He has this Steelers squad right about where it should be given the talent level. His methods work. They win games and get his clubs into the playoffs. As good as he is, however, he’s hampered by the same dozen years limitation that held back every other great coach.

I’m not saying Pittsburgh should fire him. After all, there are a lot of teams that would like to have the success level that the Steelers have had over the past decade. It’s just that if the standard is the standard (Pittsburgh’s shorthand way of saying we expect to win championships) then moving on from Tomlin may be a necessity following his 19th season with the club.

One of the reasons for that longevity is that early on in this partnership, Mike and I came up with an idea: One thought on every NFL game. I give one crucial insight into each contest on the NFL’s upcoming schedule on Thursday and then provide one thought on Tuesday after that week’s slate was complete. It’s a fun and quick way to go over every matchup and thus is a hit with the audience.

Since that format works so well on air, it seems like a no-brainer to use it as the structure for the weekly review and preview articles on this Substack.

Just like with the radio segments, there will be times when there are two or more thoughts on a game. The idea here is to find the core elements that define each contest.

(Related note: I write an NFL picks article every week for The Athletic that has picks to win and picks to cover. Here is the link to this week’s Wild Card edition).

Now let’s dive into one thought on every Wild Card game!

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina

The Rams offense gets most of the attention paid to this squad, but Chris Shula’s defense will be the key in this game. Los Angeles is 2-5 when allowing 26 or more points and 10-6 when giving up fewer than 26 points. That dovetails quite well with the Panthers being 6-0 when scoring 23 or more points and 2-9 when posting fewer than 23 points.

The major problem for the Rams defense is that it gives up far too many big passing plays. This is an ongoing issue, as this platoon has posted subpar vertical coverage numbers for many weeks now. That was a key factor in Carolina’s 31-28 win on December 21. Bryce Young attempted only five deep passes in that contest, but he completed two of them for touchdowns.

This is why Sean McVay may decide to try to slow this game down. A low scoring contest does the Rams a lot more favors than it does the Panthers.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

PPR points per game (PPR PPG) is one of the core metrics I use in grading defensive pass coverage. It is technically a fantasy football statistic but, as it the case with many fantasy metrics, it has plenty of carryover value into NFL analysis.

This game offers a clear illustration of that value. The grade range for PPR PPG goes roughly like this. Anything 6.0 or below indicates a defensive back is playing quite well (assuming there is a relatively solid target volume). A range of 6-8 is solid. Anything from 7-9 is bad. Get to 10+ and the player can be considered a target magnet.

The Bears and Packers bring five defensive backs of the 10+ PPR PPG caliber into this contest. Per Stathead, these five are:

C.J. Gardner-Johnson (11.5)

Nahshon Wright (10.6)

Carrington Valentine (12.0)

Keisean Nixon (11.8)

Jaylin Simpson (11.0)

To be fair, Gardner-Johnson is out, and Simpson is a third stringer, but that doesn’t make things better. These teams also have multiple players with a 10+ level in YPT.

Jaylon Johnson (12.8)

Kevin Byard (13.7)

Trevon Diggs (12.1)

Evan Williams (11.5)

Javon Bullard (9.6) and Jaquan Brisker (9.6) also rate poorly in this category.

Combine all of that with Kyler Gordon being listed as questionable and there is a recipe for a high scoring game. Don’t be surprised if Matt LaFleur and Ben Johnson utilize some highly aggressive passing game plans in this matchup.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

Bill James pointed out that one way to identify truly great teams is to see how often they post dominant wins.

Keep that in mind when looking at this list that shows the teams with the most 10+ point victories since Week 11:

Jacksonville: 6

San Francisco: 5

New England: 4

Seattle: 4

Buffalo is tied for fifth with four other teams.

This shows the Jaguars are on a roll like no other club right now. That momentum may have hit a crescendo last week with a 41-7 win over Tennessee. The Titans had been playing fairly well for a month headed into that game and the Jaguars destroyed them.

Jacksonville is considered one of the longest shots to win the Super Bowl, but from an on-field perspective they are actually close to Super Bowl contender status. That status may change if the Jaguars notch an impressive win over a Bills squad that has been very good but not great for most of this season (8-5 after a 4-0 start).

Buffalo’s injury issues are also a major concern. The Bills will be without LB Terrel Bernard, who was second on the team in solo tackles, and have multiple other players listed as questionable.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

This year, the Eagles have learned that the old coaching adage is true – you can’t change your team’s identity in the middle of a season. Philadelphia was built to play high percentage games where they don’t turn the ball over and win because the other team makes more mistakes. When they have gotten away from that approach to placate unhappy players, things go south quickly.

This shows up in the results. The Eagles are 11-2 this year when registering one or fewer giveaways, and 0-4 when giving up two or more turnovers.

The issue in this game is San Francisco is equally adept at winning games via a low giveaway count. The 49ers are 10-2 when registering one or fewer giveaways versus a 2-3 when generating two or more giveaways.

So, which team will win the turnover battle? The Eagles have the edge in takeaways. Philadelphia has posted at least one in all but three games this year. San Francisco has generated zero takeaways on eight occasions. The caveat here is the 49ers have generated two or more takeaways in four of their last seven games.

That may point towards Philadelphia winning the turnover battle, but the reality is that could go either way. One thing that is all but certain is whichever team wins that battle is apt to win the game.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

The Patriots started the season with a shutdown run defense. New England allowed 73 or fewer rushing yards in seven of its first nine games this year.

That started changing in Week 10 when Tampa Bay racked up 113 yards on the ground against the Patriots. It was the first of seven straight games where New England allowed 111 or more ground yards. This nadir of this pace was when the Patriots allowed 503 rushing yards in Weeks 15-17. To give up 168 yards to Buffalo and 171 yards to Baltimore was bad, but allowing the dismal Jets offense to rack up 164 yards is downright unacceptable.

This could be a big problem if the Chargers have a healthy backfield, but Omarion Hampton missed the first two practices of the week and is listed as questionable after a limited practice on Friday. Kimani Vidal is good, but if Hampton is out, the next man up on the Los Angeles RB depth chart is Jaret Patterson. That’s just not enough firepower to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. As goes Hampton, so go the Chargers and, by proxy, the Patriots.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers and Texans have some funky scoring trends.

Pittsburgh has scored 26+ points in six times since Week 11. That’s tied with Jacksonville and the Rams for second in that span, behind only New England’s seven games. That trend could offset the fact that the Steelers are 1-6 this year when giving up 25 or more points.

Houston has allowed 20 or fewer points in a league leading 13 games. That somewhat dovetails with the Texans being 11-0 when scoring 20 or more points, but Houston is 7-1 when allowing 16 or fewer points, and 5-4 when allowing 17 or more.

Add it up and it shows there are multiple paths to victory on either side of the ledger in this one. That could make this the most competitive of this week’s Wild Card matchups.

Photo of the day

For today’s photo of the day, we have an alligator spotted at the Lake Apopka Wildlife Drive. Mrs. Scientist gets as close as she can to these dinosaurs without being dangerous. That proximity lends itself to some pretty cool shots! You can find more of her photos at her Flash Art Photography site.

Be curious - subscribe today!

Ted Lasso’s lesson on being inquisitive

One of the great moments from the show Ted Lasso is the darts scene. Ted gets into a game of darts at a local bar to save his boss Rebecca from a string of demeaning owner’s box appearances with her ex-husband Rupert.

Everyone in the bar, including Rebecca, sees Lasso as a dim-witted American hillbilly. In fact, their nickname for him is Wanker (a very rude British term). Ted plays into that mistaken viewpoint to get Rupert to offer the darts game wager. Lasso is actually a master at playing darts, so this ruse allows Ted to show the locals that he’s much smarter and savvier than they think he is.

As usual, Ted employs folksy storytelling to illustrate this message. He invokes the famous advice that says, “Be curious, not judgmental” (which he wrongly attributes to Walt Whitman, but let’s not let the facts get in the way of Lasso’s story).

In that moment, Ted was admonishing a bully, and by proxy everyone in the bar, for taking him at face value and not being curious as to if there was more to him. In pure Lasso form, there was a secondary message that was even more important - he was imploring them to open their minds to curiosity.

Ted wanted them to relish the magic of inquiry. To see the value in desiring to know more. Lasso knew to be blindly judgmental is to miss the opportunity to gain in-depth knowledge on any subject. He aimed for them to take him seriously, but even more importantly Lasso wanted them to use their intellectual prowess to access a larger world.

New vehicle to power curiosity

When I first saw that darts scene, it served as a wake up call.

I had that insatiably curious mindset in 2003 when I quit my job and started a football writing career despite having no formal training in football or writing. Not a day went by that I wasn’t trying to learn more about this endlessly entertaining sport. I knew the only way to satiate that desire was by turning that football passion into a full-time career.

That hasn’t changed in the 20+ years since then, but over the past few years I’ve gone from writing NFL-centric content all the time to writing it only in certain windows. There are many reasons for this change, including ESPN de-emphasizing written content, my subsequent layoff from ESPN in 2019, the pandemic and taking on other types of work such as SEO articles.

The wake up call made it clear that a shift back towards writing NFL content all year long is an absolute necessity. It was a reminder that my inquisitiveness is not being fully satiated because my interests in this sport go far beyond in-season fantasy football and prognostication articles.

There is so much more to learn. Play calling details. New types of metric analysis. Historical research (we’ve got access to more classic coaching film footage today than we’ve ever had access to). Sharing insights from great books and/or interesting videos. Tapping into some of the brightest minds in the industry via interviews. The list of possibilities is endless. This Substack is dedicated to the pursuit of this knowledge and more.

Get 5-10+ articles per month

Here’s the game plan

Now that we’ve established the parameters of what this Substack will be about, let’s dive into some game plan specifics.

• I will publish two articles every week. During the postseason, that will include an early week review and a late week preview of that week’s contests.

• There will be 3-4 floating articles per month. There may be more posts than this at certain times (free agency being one of them).

• The chat room will be active. The specific dates/times for the chat room are TBD at the moment. The vision here is to use them in conjunction with game previews and reviews during the season and at various times in the offseason.

• There will be a monthly Ask Me Anything article.

• Free subscribers will get access to one post per week and some of the floating articles.

• Paid subscribers get access to all posts, archived posts and the chat room.

Join me on this journey

I’ve run into so many readers over the years who have the curious mind that Lasso was referring to. If you are one of those people, this is a Substack you’ll want to subscribe to.

Let’s have some fun finding out more about this great sport. This ought to be a blast!

Photo of the Day

Long-time TFS followers will remember Mrs. Scientist. She’s the one who made all of this possible back in the day (how many wives would tell their husbands yes when it comes to pursuing a crazy dream like this?).

She’s starting to pursue her own dream of being a professional photographer. She was an amateur photographer for years but then got away from it for a time while raising our two sons.

I’m proud as heck to say that’s she’s not missing a beat getting back up to speed here. She’s started a new website that I’ll be sharing pictures from on a regular basis. Today’s photo is a young buck that we saw at Sylvan Lake Park in Sanford, FL.

If you want to see more of her photos, check out her gallery at Flash Art Photography.