Looking back at the 2025 NFL Wild Card games
One thought on every game from what was a truly a wild Wild Card weekend
This Wild Card weekend portended to be an entertaining slate, and it sure lived up to that billing! Some of this review edition of One Thought on Every Game will take a look back at what happened in these contests, but in some cases these thoughts will be spun forward to see where these results might take us.
Los Angeles Rams 34, Carolina Panthers 31
It’s not surprising that the Rams got into a scoreboard shootout (defined as when both teams score 24+ points). Their defense has major issues in vertical pass coverage (something discussed in last week’s One Thought on Every Game preview) and the Rams are the only team to score 500+ points this year.
Is that a path they can replicate on the way to a Super Bowl win? Let’s run some numbers to find out.
We’ll start with an updated version of a study on the success rate of 500+ point offenses in scoreboard shootout games. It used to be that 500+ points team fared quite well here. Up until the 2010 season, these squads were 52-13-1 in these contests, a win rate of 79.5 percent (ties are listed as half a win in this system).
That rate has been dropping since then. From 2011 through today, 500+ point teams are 83-45, a win rate of 64.8 percent. Since 2020, 500+ point teams are 35-25, a win of 58.3 percent.
The odds that a team with a 58.3 percent win rate will win three consecutive games is only 19.8 percent. That assumes the Rams are at that level, but they aren’t. Including this victory over Carolina, a team that is easily the worst team in this postseason tournament, Los Angeles is now 3-4 in scoreboard shootouts. Multiply that win rate by three straight games and it equals a meager 7.9 percent.
The fact is that the Rams have to avoid scoreboard shootouts if they are to have any reasonable chance at making it to Super Bowl LX.
Chicago Bears 31, Green Bay Packers 27
Since we’re on the subject of scoreboard shootouts, it’s worth pointing out that Chicago is 5-2 in those types of contests this season. That was nearly inevitable in this game given the volume of subpar coverage players (as noted in the Wild Card preview). It bodes for the Rams-Bears matchup to land in the same high scoring category.
It should also be noted that Chicago did not have a single punt in this game. Part of that was because the Bears only have 10 drives in this game (a relatively low number). Another reason is that Chicago lost the ball on downs twice in the second quarter. Combine that with two interceptions and it shows that Ben Johnson understood a scoreboard shootout was in the works. That understanding may be why the Bears have tended to fare better in that type of contest than the Rams.
Buffalo Bills 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 24
Josh Allen is rightfully and understandably getting a ton of kudos for his performance in this game. After looking over the numbers, what really stands out about this contest is just how much Trevor Lawrence has to carry the Jaguars passing game.
Jacksonville got a great performance out of Parker Washington. He caught seven out of 12 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown despite having to leave the game at one point to be checked for a concussion.
Now look at the rest of the Jaguars passing offense. Travis Etienne caught five out of five targets for 49 yards and a score. The remainder of the Jacksonville pass catchers tallied only six catches on 13 targets for 51 yards and one touchdown. Brian Thomas and Jakobi Meyers combined for just three catches for 33 yards.
Meyers has played well enough to get a large contract extension and Washington looks like he may be the real deal, but the reality is neither one of them is a true WR1. Thomas was in that category last year, and but he hasn’t been that this year. To be fair, Thomas was dealing with wrist, shoulder and ankle injuries this season, but this may also be a classic case of a sophomore slump.
Whichever it is, the Bills had depth players step up with big pass plays. The Jaguars didn’t have that and they weren’t getting enough out of their starters. It was just enough to end the run of what may have been the hottest team in the NFL headed into the playoffs.
San Francisco 49ers 23, Philadelphia Eagles 19
If you want to be instantly smarter about football, you need to be following Coach Dan Casey on one of his social media platforms (he’s on YouTube, X and Instagram). He made a fantastic point about Christian McCaffrey’s game winning touchdown catch.
This is technically not a Texas route but rather a Texas route combination. In this route combination, the tight end runs a seam route to clear out the middle of the field. The running back usually lines up on the same side as the tight end and runs an angle route. That’s a route where the running back leaves the backfield at a 45-degree angle aiming outside of the offensive tackle. Once the running back gets a couple of yards upfield, he then turns 90 degrees and cuts towards the middle of the field. When run to the left, the angle route kind of looks like the less than sign (think “<”).
My understanding of why this is called a Texas route combination is that Mike Holmgren, who either created it or popularized it, said when this route combination is run against certain coverages, it will lead to a hole in the defensive coverage the size of Texas.
Casey points out that this Texas route combination was different because McCaffrey was lined up on the opposite side of the backfield. When CMC goes across the formation, the defense will usually read it as if he is scanning for blitz or pass rush pickups. The last thing a defense will figure on is McCaffrey then running the low side of a Texas combination.
What also makes this interesting is that the Texas route combo is usually used in the open field where there is plenty of room for the Texas-sized hole to open. That Kyle Shanahan called it this close to the goal line shows that when the game was on the line, he won the play calling battle against Vic Fangio. And that’s why the 49ers advanced to the NFC Divisional round.
New England Patriots 16, Los Angeles Chargers 3
The key to this game was whether or not Omarion Hampton would be able to play. He technically did play, but getting two offensive snaps and only one carry indicates he was just a decoy. It was gamesmanship from Jim Harbaugh that didn’t work. It’s not as if the Chargers lacked investments in the ground game headed into this season. It’s just that this group had so many injuries that they only had Kimani Vidal to go with in a road playoff game. It wasn’t anywhere near enough.
Houston Texans 30, Pittsburgh Steelers 6
Al Davis said that a coach has about 10 years before his team will start tuning him out. A study I did a few years back shows that’s probably closer to 12 years, but Davis was right in that even the best coaches in NFL history find it quite difficult to get their teams to title contention after the 10-to-12-year mark.
Keep that in mind regarding Mike Tomlin. He has this Steelers squad right about where it should be given the talent level. His methods work. They win games and get his clubs into the playoffs. As good as he is, however, he’s hampered by the same dozen years limitation that held back every other great coach.
I’m not saying Pittsburgh should fire him. After all, there are a lot of teams that would like to have the success level that the Steelers have had over the past decade. It’s just that if the standard is the standard (Pittsburgh’s shorthand way of saying we expect to win championships) then moving on from Tomlin may be a necessity following his 19th season with the club.