NFL Wild Card Weekend previews

One thought (or maybe more) on every NFL Wild Card contest

I’ve been doing segments on the Mike Gill Show on 97.3 ESPN in Atlantic City for so long that Mike and I can’t really remember when we started doing these segments together.

One of the reasons for that longevity is that early on in this partnership, Mike and I came up with an idea: One thought on every NFL game. I give one crucial insight into each contest on the NFL’s upcoming schedule on Thursday and then provide one thought on Tuesday after that week’s slate was complete. It’s a fun and quick way to go over every matchup and thus is a hit with the audience.

Photo by Ashley Levinson on Unsplash

Since that format works so well on air, it seems like a no-brainer to use it as the structure for the weekly review and preview articles on this Substack.

Just like with the radio segments, there will be times when there are two or more thoughts on a game. The idea here is to find the core elements that define each contest.

(Related note: I write an NFL picks article every week for The Athletic that has picks to win and picks to cover. Here is the link to this week’s Wild Card edition).

Now let’s dive into one thought on every Wild Card game!

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina

The Rams offense gets most of the attention paid to this squad, but Chris Shula’s defense will be the key in this game. Los Angeles is 2-5 when allowing 26 or more points and 10-6 when giving up fewer than 26 points. That dovetails quite well with the Panthers being 6-0 when scoring 23 or more points and 2-9 when posting fewer than 23 points.

The major problem for the Rams defense is that it gives up far too many big passing plays. This is an ongoing issue, as this platoon has posted subpar vertical coverage numbers for many weeks now. That was a key factor in Carolina’s 31-28 win on December 21. Bryce Young attempted only five deep passes in that contest, but he completed two of them for touchdowns.

This is why Sean McVay may decide to try to slow this game down. A low scoring contest does the Rams a lot more favors than it does the Panthers.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

PPR points per game (PPR PPG) is one of the core metrics I use in grading defensive pass coverage. It is technically a fantasy football statistic but, as it the case with many fantasy metrics, it has plenty of carryover value into NFL analysis.

This game offers a clear illustration of that value. The grade range for PPR PPG goes roughly like this. Anything 6.0 or below indicates a defensive back is playing quite well (assuming there is a relatively solid target volume). A range of 6-8 is solid. Anything from 7-9 is bad. Get to 10+ and the player can be considered a target magnet.

The Bears and Packers bring five defensive backs of the 10+ PPR PPG caliber into this contest. Per Stathead, these five are:

C.J. Gardner-Johnson (11.5)

Nahshon Wright (10.6)

Carrington Valentine (12.0)

Keisean Nixon (11.8)

Jaylin Simpson (11.0)

To be fair, Gardner-Johnson is out, and Simpson is a third stringer, but that doesn’t make things better. These teams also have multiple players with a 10+ level in YPT.

Jaylon Johnson (12.8)

Kevin Byard (13.7)

Trevon Diggs (12.1)

Evan Williams (11.5)

Javon Bullard (9.6) and Jaquan Brisker (9.6) also rate poorly in this category.

Combine all of that with Kyler Gordon being listed as questionable and there is a recipe for a high scoring game. Don’t be surprised if Matt LaFleur and Ben Johnson utilize some highly aggressive passing game plans in this matchup.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

Bill James pointed out that one way to identify truly great teams is to see how often they post dominant wins.

Keep that in mind when looking at this list that shows the teams with the most 10+ point victories since Week 11:

Jacksonville: 6

San Francisco: 5

New England: 4

Seattle: 4

Buffalo is tied for fifth with four other teams.

This shows the Jaguars are on a roll like no other club right now. That momentum may have hit a crescendo last week with a 41-7 win over Tennessee. The Titans had been playing fairly well for a month headed into that game and the Jaguars destroyed them.

Jacksonville is considered one of the longest shots to win the Super Bowl, but from an on-field perspective they are actually close to Super Bowl contender status. That status may change if the Jaguars notch an impressive win over a Bills squad that has been very good but not great for most of this season (8-5 after a 4-0 start).

Buffalo’s injury issues are also a major concern. The Bills will be without LB Terrel Bernard, who was second on the team in solo tackles, and have multiple other players listed as questionable.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

This year, the Eagles have learned that the old coaching adage is true – you can’t change your team’s identity in the middle of a season. Philadelphia was built to play high percentage games where they don’t turn the ball over and win because the other team makes more mistakes. When they have gotten away from that approach to placate unhappy players, things go south quickly.

This shows up in the results. The Eagles are 11-2 this year when registering one or fewer giveaways, and 0-4 when giving up two or more turnovers.

The issue in this game is San Francisco is equally adept at winning games via a low giveaway count. The 49ers are 10-2 when registering one or fewer giveaways versus a 2-3 when generating two or more giveaways.

So, which team will win the turnover battle? The Eagles have the edge in takeaways. Philadelphia has posted at least one in all but three games this year. San Francisco has generated zero takeaways on eight occasions. The caveat here is the 49ers have generated two or more takeaways in four of their last seven games.

That may point towards Philadelphia winning the turnover battle, but the reality is that could go either way. One thing that is all but certain is whichever team wins that battle is apt to win the game.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

The Patriots started the season with a shutdown run defense. New England allowed 73 or fewer rushing yards in seven of its first nine games this year.

That started changing in Week 10 when Tampa Bay racked up 113 yards on the ground against the Patriots. It was the first of seven straight games where New England allowed 111 or more ground yards. This nadir of this pace was when the Patriots allowed 503 rushing yards in Weeks 15-17. To give up 168 yards to Buffalo and 171 yards to Baltimore was bad, but allowing the dismal Jets offense to rack up 164 yards is downright unacceptable.

This could be a big problem if the Chargers have a healthy backfield, but Omarion Hampton missed the first two practices of the week and is listed as questionable after a limited practice on Friday. Kimani Vidal is good, but if Hampton is out, the next man up on the Los Angeles RB depth chart is Jaret Patterson. That’s just not enough firepower to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. As goes Hampton, so go the Chargers and, by proxy, the Patriots.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers and Texans have some funky scoring trends.

Pittsburgh has scored 26+ points in six times since Week 11. That’s tied with Jacksonville and the Rams for second in that span, behind only New England’s seven games. That trend could offset the fact that the Steelers are 1-6 this year when giving up 25 or more points.

Houston has allowed 20 or fewer points in a league leading 13 games. That somewhat dovetails with the Texans being 11-0 when scoring 20 or more points, but Houston is 7-1 when allowing 16 or fewer points, and 5-4 when allowing 17 or more.

Add it up and it shows there are multiple paths to victory on either side of the ledger in this one. That could make this the most competitive of this week’s Wild Card matchups.

Photo of the day

For today’s photo of the day, we have an alligator spotted at the Lake Apopka Wildlife Drive. Mrs. Scientist gets as close as she can to these dinosaurs without being dangerous. That proximity lends itself to some pretty cool shots! You can find more of her photos at her Flash Art Photography site.