Stat & fantasy football scoring insights from the new run block grading system
Detailing the respective values of breakaway blocks and wrecking rushes
The plus/minus run block grading system introduced last week lived up to the first part of motto of this Substack, which is “finding new methods to learn about this fascinating sport and sharing those findings with readers”.
Now we are on to the sharing the findings portion of that motto.
I’ll begin with the following review of the 2025 leaguewide metrics. This will be a mix of stat analysis and fantasy scoring analysis (the latter being apt timing since this is the start of fantasy draft season).
Next up will be an eight-article series with spin it forward previews of every NFL team’s 2026 ground game, broken down by division. The first preview, covering the AFC East, will be posted later this week.
Related note - these are the types of analyses that will be available exclusively for paid subscribers throughout the season in my weekly plus/minus run blocking articles.
Now let’s get into some of these numbers!
Most of these chart columns are self-explanatory. The percent of planned rushes shows how often each run block grade type occurred among planned blocking plays. For example, plus blocking accounted for 42.2 percent of planned rushing plays in 2025.
The FFB designation stands for fantasy football. The FFB pts category is the number of fantasy points scored via that run block grade. FFB pts/play is the average scoring amount of each play. The percent of FFB points shows how much each category accounted for the percentage of fantasy points on all rush plays (not just planned rushes).
Now that we have the preliminaries out of the way, let’s look at some of the key takeaways.
Breakaway rushes are the mother lode of rushing production, especially in fantasy football
All plus blocking plays are beneficial, but breakaway plays are hands down the most impactful rushing plays. The average gain on a breakaway in 2025 was over twice as much as excellent blocking and more than three times as much as good blocking.
Breakaways also stack up fantasy value faster than anything else. This even includes goal line plays (none of which, by definition, can end up in the breakaway category since breakaways are limited to plays beginning at or outside the opponent’s 10-yard line).
For proof, consider that breakaway plays generated nearly as many fantasy points as good and excellent blocking plays combined despite accounting for a much lower percentage of planned rushing plays (12.0 percent versus a combined 30.2 percent for good and excellent plays). In fact, last year one breakaway play was worth as many fantasy points on average (1.9) as a good (0.8) and excellent (1.1) play combined.
This is why fantasy managers should strongly pursue players with high breakaway YPC numbers or who are on teams that can generate a relatively high percentage of breakaway rushes. These are two categories that will be covered in the 2026 team-by-team rush game preview series.
Breakaway rushes are why defensive coordinators spend so much time trying to stop the run
The overwhelming value of breakaway rushes is why defensive coordinators spend so much time trying to stop the run and why offensive coordinators spend so much time trying to establish the run.
To get an idea of just how damaging breakaway rushes can be to a defense, consider this. Per TruMedia, an average vertical pass completion last year was 18.2 yards (vertical passes being attempts with 11-19 air yards). Breakaway rushes are nearly as impactful (14.5 YPC), but when an offense tries a vertical pass, it is also risking an incompletion, sack or interception. Those are three things that cannot occur on a breakaway rush. This means that every breakaway rush provides successful vertical pass-caliber upside without most of the downside that occurs when a team tries to throw long aerials.
A defense cannot stop the run with bad blocking plays alone
It’s not just preventing breakaway rushes that causes defensive coordinators issues. Another problem is that defenses cannot stop the run via bad blocking plays alone.
Let’s use a theoretical example to show why this is. Based on last year’s numbers, a bad blocking play averages 2.4 yards per carry. Put two of those together on a first down and second down rush and the offense will typically be in a third-and-5 or third-and-6 situation.
The good news is that the defense didn’t give up a first down on either of those plays, and the offense is now in a medium distance third down play. The bad news is that is only a slightly better than 50/50 proposition for the defense. Per Stathead, offenses gained a first down on 43.3 percent of plays on 3rd down with 4 to 6 yards to go in the 2025 season.
What makes that even tougher for a defense is that this only occurs if the defense stacks up two bad rush plays in a row. That should only happen on average about one third of the time (.578 times .578 equals 33.4 percent). If that does take place, it’s still not a situation that is likely to make an offense one-dimensional (which is the goal in stopping the run).
By contrast, if an offense posts a combination of a good blocking play and bad blocking play on first and second down, it’s now a third-and-3 call, which the offense will be more than happy with overall.
On a related note, it was somewhat surprising that wrecked plays were not more damaging than they were. A minus 0.9-yard average does hurt an offense on any down, but it’s nowhere near as destructive as a sack and only slightly worse than an incomplete pass (at least from a yardage perspective). This is another element that works against defenses stopping the run.
The 42.2 percent plus blocking rate is par for the historical course in that category
For those wondering how these leaguewide numbers are likely to hold up over time, it’s worth noting that the 42.2 percent plus blocking rate is similar to the leaguewide good blocking rates that were generated in the over 15 years I used the previous incarnation of this system.
The range of plus blocking rates for teams went from the low 30s to the low 50s last year. To illustrate, here are the 2025 metrics.
What’s the deal with obstructions having a higher YPC than good blocking plays?
A good way to close this is out to address that it might seem odd that obstructions had a higher YPC than good blocking plays.
This occurred because obstructions are borderline plays that could be graded either in the plus or minus category. That sounds like a 50/50 split, but it really isn’t, because in general obstruction plays are closer cousins to plus blocking plays than they are to minus blocking plays. I ended up putting them into the minus category because the defense still did something to negatively impact a play, even if it wasn’t enough to warrant a minus blocking designation.
That status in play grading limbo, when added to a notable percentage of obstruction rushes generating long gains, accounts for this seeming discrepancy.