Will Andy Reid go with a run-heavy approach in 2026?
The addition of Kenneth Walker III gives Reid plenty of play calling options
This is the first of the “One Thought on Every Team” series that will review one item (and sometimes more) for every NFL team. This edition is on the Kansas City Chiefs.
It may be an understatement to say that Bobby Bowden had a run-centric background. As evidenced by this classic scene from the movie We Are Marshall
Bowden was once the master of the Veer option offense that is about as ground-oriented as it gets. This approach led to his 1975 West Virginia team running the ball 588 times while throwing it only 192 times.
Bowden eventually moved to an I-formation offense at Florida State, but he was still a proponent of running the ball. His 1980 Seminoles had 601 rushes versus only 232 passes.
His run-first approach started to change once Florida State began its dynastic run in 1987. This success allowed Bowden to recruit top-level talent from around the country. One of these players was Charlie Ward, a basketball point guard who eventually had an 11-year NBA career at that position. With Ward under center, Bowden decided to switch to a fast break passing game. That decision resulted in Ward leading the nation in touchdown passes in 1993.
Bowden later explained why he made this change. He understood that even though his squad had elite talent across the board, there are structural limitations inherent to every football team. A team must have an identity. Something has to be primary, and something has to be secondary.
That realization led Bowden to proclaim that a team can be great at passing and good at running, or great at running and good at passing. It cannot be great at passing and great at running. It must choose which is the primary and which is the secondary.
Andy Reid’s play calling preference
Andy Reid has always made it clear that passing is his preference for the primary. Reid once told John Clayton half-jokingly that he would call a pass on every play if he could.
Reid wasn’t able to go that route when he arrived in Kansas City in 2013. Alex Smith was a solid quarterback but not someone a coach would want to throw the ball 600+ times. This is why Reid’s first four Chiefs teams were in the upper half of the league in rush attempts and finished 20th, 28th, 29th and 25th, respectively, in pass attempts. Even with that ground-centric lean, Kansas City had enough play calling prowess and on-field talent to rank 12th in scoring over the course of those four seasons (per Stathead).
Reid never got away from wanting to throw the ball, which is why Kansas City drafted Tyreek Hill in 2016. That move soon corresponded with Reid going for broke in upgrading the quarterback position. The Chiefs sent two first-round picks and a third round selection to the Bills to move up to the No. 10 pick in the 2017 NFL Draft to select Patrick Mahomes (a move Buffalo laments to this very day).
With the trio of Hill, Mahomes and Travis Kelce in place, Reid naturally shifted towards making passing the primary element in the Kansas City offense. The Chiefs pass volume spiked (top nine rankings in pass attempts in every season but one since then), but more importantly, Kansas City also posted fantastic pass expected points added (EPA) numbers from 2019 to 2022.
Passing EPA
2018: 253.11, ranked first
2019: 188.85, ranked first
2020: 226.00, ranked third
2021: 180.94, ranked second
2022: 195.91, ranked first
Now contrast those figures to the Chiefs rush game EPA in that same time frame.
Rushing EPA
2018: 31.28, ranked fourth
2019: -1.19, ranked ninth
2020: 19.44, ranked 13th
2021: 32.94, ranked seventh
2022: 48.92, ranked fifth
That’s the statistical framework of a great passing game combined with a very good rushing attack.
Kansas City’s passing game fall from greatness
Things started to change when Hill left for Miami in 2021. The Chiefs wide receiver corps saw a massive drop off in talent, but Reid and Mahomes were able to hold off an EPA decline for a year. That regression couldn’t be avoided starting in 2023 and it led to a huge reduction in pass EPA in 2023-2025.
Passing EPA
2023: 61.86, ranked 16th
2024: 106.09, ranked 11th
2025: 66.93, ranked 14th
Now compare that to the Chiefs rush EPA figures in those seasons.
Rushing EPA
2023: 6.08, ranked 12th
2024: 13.30, ranked 13th
2025: 35.44, ranked sixth
Those numbers indicate a team that is good at passing and rushing and not great in either category.
Reid has been trying his best to get the Chiefs passing game back into the great category. He’s said every season over the past three years that Kansas City is going all out to upgrade its aerial attack, yet that move back to greatness just hasn’t happened.
Talent is a big part of the problem. Travis Kelce is still a good tight end but he’s not what he used to be. Rashee Rice has elite skills, but he also has recurring off field issues and is coming off of what is easily the worst statistical season of his NFL career.
Xavier Worthy is a multi-talented pass catcher who is the team’s best short pass wide receiver and a top red zone threat, but he’s also only 165 pounds and has never posted more than 79 scrimmage plays in a college or pro season. He’s a good cog in the machine but not the type of player who can push a passing game into overdrive.
Combine those issues with Mahomes suffering another knee injury and it may explain why Kansas City signed Kenneth Walker III to a three-year, $45 million contract. Reid may have decided another approach is necessary to get this team back to winning Super Bowls.
Walker gives Reid another path to play calling greatness
It’s not as if the Chiefs were ineffective at running the ball in 2025. As noted earlier, Kansas City ranked sixth in rush EPA last season. This was due in part to Reid’s innovative run play calling. He has a seemingly endless array of creative key busters built into his ground game plan.
These innovations got the most out of Kareem Hunt last year. He had 27 rushing plays with an EPA mark of 1.0 or higher. That total ranked tied for 13th and placed Hunt slightly behind Walker, whose 29 plays of 1+ EPA ranked tied for 11th.
Consider that achievement for a moment. Reid got nearly as many impact EPA plays out of 30-year Kareem Hunt as Seattle got out of 25-year old Kenneth Walker. To be fair, Walker was in a platoon with Zach Charbonnet for most of the season, but this still speaks volumes for how adept Reid is at run play calling.
That trait suggests Reid can get even more big plays out of a 26-year old Walker. The Chiefs could also bring Hunt back for 2026. If that happens, Reid will have the option of going with a platoon with Walker as the 1A and Hunt as the 1B, or to have Walker be the lead back and Hunt serve as a highly utilized alternate back.
Whichever way he goes, Reid now has ample run game talent to work with. He isn’t going to take the Bowden approach of a 3-1 lean in favor of the run, but instead could turn this into offense something like what Joe Gibbs operated during the Washington Redskins dynasty days. Lean on a bruising ground game, mix in a solid amount of safe short passes and then counterpunch with ruthlessly effective long passes when the defense overplays the run.
That’s an approach that has won multiple Super Bowls over the years. Since Reid and Mahomes are more interested in winning rings than stat building, this is something they can both buy into.
If it works, it may be just what Kansas City needs to raise another Lombardi Trophy.
Walker’s fantasy football value
It’s way too early to tell exactly where things will play out in the 2026 fantasy rankings, but the early TFS projection is that Kansas City will bring Hunt back. They will then go with Walker as the 1A platoon but will end pushing that work level to the border of lead back status. That’s more than enough to give Walker a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 valuation. If Hunt doesn’t return and Walker gets true lead back status, he will then be a mid-tier RB1.