2026 AFC North run game preview
Can Derrick Henry have the greatest age-32+ RB campaign of all time?
This is the second in an eight-article series with spin it forward previews of every NFL team’s 2026 ground game, broken down by division. This edition covers the AFC North. To find out more about the format for this series, check out this post on the AFC East and the overview of my new plus/minus run blocking grading system.
Baltimore Ravens
Carry division type: Bell cow
Bell cow: Derrick Henry
Primary backup: Justice Hill
2026 rush defense matchup points: 38
Returning offensive line starters: 2
Can Derrick Henry have the greatest age-32+ running back campaign of all time?
King Henry is much like Elvis Presley, a fellow king, in that he is every bit as good late in his career as he was early on.
Last year, Henry had one of the most impressive age-31 RB seasons in NFL history. He ran for 1,595 yards, which is the fourth highest rush yardage total in that age bracket, and racked up 16 rushing touchdowns, which is tied for second among that group. Henry’s 5.2 YPC average was also third highest among age-31 running backs with 200 or more carries.
What makes those numbers even more impressive is that Henry was one of the best breakaways backs in the NFL in 2025. He ranked first in breakaway yards, fourth in breakaway YPC and second in breakaway fantasy points. These totals led to Henry placing second in plus yards, fourth in plus YPC and first in plus fantasy points.
Can he carry this production pace over to his age-32 campaign? History says it will be tough. Walter Payton and John Riggins are the only running backs to post 1,200+ rushing yards at age 32 or higher and Payton is the only RB with a 1,400+ yard season in that age group. Henry gets to take his age-32 shot in a 17-game season versus the 16 games Sweetness and Riggo had, but Father Time will not be helping him.
So, what is on Henry’s side (besides the fact that it should not be possible for someone of his size to run as fast as he does)?
For starters, Henry ranked 13th in plus blocking rate received last year. That is just outside of the top quarter of the 49 qualifying running backs (100+ planned rushes to qualify). It means there is room for upside here if Baltimore can improve its No. 10 ranking in plus blocking rate.
That’s where new offensive line coach Dwayne Ledford steps into the picture. His 2025 Falcons squad ranked 22nd in plus blocking rate last year, but Atlanta had a 40.4 percent plus blocking rate on 141 outside zone plays.
This is key for two reasons. That 141 total was by far the most in that category, being nearly twice as many as the second-place qualifiers (San Francisco and Seattle, who both posted 75). This shows outside zone plays are Ledford’s specialty.
It’s also why Baltimore brought him in. New offensive coordinator Declan Doyle reportedly wants to use Henry more on outside zone rushes. That approach has huge upside potential considering that Henry averaged 5.7 YPC on outside zone plays last year and racked up a stupidly high 23.3 breakaway YPC in that rush type.
Henry is also approaching this season with just as much intensity as he’s always had. A recent article at The Athletic quoted Jesse Minter as saying that Henry has “one of the craziest work ethics” Minter has ever seen. Tyler Dunne of Go Long (a must-follow Substack) said that Henry looked “damn quick” during Dunne’s visit to Ravens training camp.
The schedule isn’t a plus, but my Paydirt start-sit charts indicate the Ravens are currently projected to have only one unfavorable rush defense matchup in Weeks 1-8.
Add this all together and it sure seems like Henry is on track to have one of the greatest age-32+ running back campaigns in NFL history.
Cincinnati Bengals
Carry division type: Bell cow
Bell cow: Chase Brown
Primary backup: Samaje Perine
2026 rush defense matchup points: 12
Returning offensive line starters: 5
Why can’t Chase Brown ever move into upper-tier RB1 status in fantasy football?
Chase Brown is a very good fantasy running back. He was the RB12 and RB10 in non-PPR and RB10 and RB7 in PPR over the past two years. This makes Brown the type of low-end RB1 who fantasy managers are more than happy drafting early in the second round in 10- and 12-team leagues.
As laudable as those figures are, Brown is a bell cow running back in one of the highest-octane offenses in the NFL. He also catches 50-60 passes per year. That combination has resulted in only four running backs having more receptions over the past two seasons and only eight having more scrimmage plays.
Brown also had a 10-game streak with 15+ PPR points last year, a mark that led all RBs and was the longest single-season streak of that nature since 2021. This should all seemingly result in upper-tier RB1 points at the end of a season. Why doesn’t it?
For starters, Brown is a bell cow in one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the NFL. That’s why he posted 229 and 232 carries, respectively, over the past two years. Those totals ranked 16th and 17th in each of those campaigns, thus showing Brown just doesn’t get the caliber of rushing work that other bell cows do.
Last year, he did not fare particularly well in the breakaway rushing category. Those carries accounted for 31.3 percent of Brown’s fantasy rushing points. That mark was tied for 33rd among the 49 qualifying running backs in 2025.
Brown also doesn’t get a lot of goal line work. He had only seven inside the 5-rushes last season. To be fair, some of that was due to the Bengals offense struggling when Joe Burrow wasn’t in the lineup, but Brown posted only 12 inside the 5-carries in 2024 when Burrow was there for the entire year. For perspective, that latter total ranked tied for 13th, which is again a very good but not elite mark.
Brown’s red zone carry total is not apt to change much if Burrow returns to anywhere close to his 2024 red zone form. Check out his insane red zone passing stats from that year:
122 attempts (23 more than second place), 71 completions (six more than second place), 30 touchdowns and no interceptions. Burrow’s inside the 10 numbers were equally ridiculous, as he completed 35 of 71 passes for 23 touchdowns and zero interceptions.
The advanced rush numbers illustrate that the Bengals offensive line is built for pass blocking. Cincinnati ranked 19th in plus blocking rate, 32nd in excellent blocking rate and 23rd in breakaway blocking rate last year. The offensive line personnel are largely unchanged from 2025, so Brown may not get upper-tier run blocking.
To recap, that’s a relatively low bell cow rush volume, subpar run blocking, good but not great breakaway numbers and a solid but not spectacular inside the 5-carry workload. Brown needs to be an elite RB1 in at least one of these areas (and preferably more) to challenge for upper-tier RB1 status, but he isn’t.
Since these factors aren’t likely to change in his favor, and since the Bengals have a very difficult rush defense schedule (only one favorable rush defense matchup all year per the current Paydirt start-sit chart matchup projections), Brown remains as that second-round RB1 who just doesn’t have the upside that some other RBs at that level can provide.
Cleveland Browns
Carry division type: Bell cow
Bell cow: Quinshon Judkins
Primary backup: Dylan Sampson
2026 rush defense matchup points: 43
Returning offensive line starters: 0
Just how much rushing upside potential does Quinshon Judkins have behind the Browns completely revamped offensive line?
Metric improvement is always relative, but the Browns run blocking pretty much has nowhere to go but up. Last year, Cleveland ranked last or next to last in plus, excellent and breakaway blocking rate and placed 25th in excellent blocking rate.
Judkins certainly suffered from this lack of quality blocking. He ranked 43rd or worse in plus, excellent and breakaway blocking received and placed 35th in excellent blocking received.
The Browns made a lot of moves to turn this blocking miasma around. In fact, not a single starter returns from last year’s offensive line. Individual run blocking grades can be deceiving for a lot of reasons, but three of the Browns new starting offensive linemen are considered strong run blockers.
Any plus blocking improvement will be a big help for Judkins, but what he really needs is more breakaway opportunities. Judkins ranked 11th in breakaway YPC and outpaced many big names there, including Christian McCaffrey, James Cook and Saquon Barkley. A repeat of that performance means that even a marginal increase in breakaway blocking rate will result in tremendous gains for Judkins.
One area he needs to step his game up in is the good YPC category. Those carries typically aren’t going to be big gainers (4.5 league wide YPC last year) but someone of Judkins caliber shouldn’t end up in last place in this metric.
The Browns schedule is somewhat agreeable in that it has only three unfavorable rush defense matchups all season, but Cleveland also has just one favorable matchup in Weeks 1-12.
Combine these factors with what should be a very improved Browns passing game (especially if Cleveland’s rookie WRs pan out quickly) and Judkins should post the first 1,000+ rush season by a Browns player since 2022. I’d even go so far as to say that Judkins can rack up 1,200+ rush yards if things go well.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Carry division type: Platoon
Platoon 1A: Jaylen Warren
Platoon 1B: Rico Dowdle
2026 rush defense matchup points: 4
Returning offensive line starters: 3
How are the Steelers likely to split carries in this backfield? And how will that impact the fantasy scoring potential for Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle?
This is one of the most interesting backfield situations in the 2026 season because the Steelers probably want to operate a platoon with Rico Dowdle as the thunder back and Jaylen Warren as the lightning back.
This is unusual in a sense because Warren was Pittsburgh’s thunder back last year, but that was due in part to Kenny Gainwell being less suited for a thunder back role than Warren.
Dowdle certainly is suited for it. He ranked 13th in scrimmage plays over the past two seasons and was only 33 scrimmage plays away from a top 10 finish.
Dowdle is also a strong fit for thunder back duties due to superior rush performance on inside the 5-carries. Last year, Dowdle had plus blocking on only three of his nine carries inside the 5-yard line (including a two-point conversion attempt against Arizona in Week 2), yet he scored five touchdowns. By contrast, Warren had plus blocking on four of his 14 inside the 5-carries, but he found paydirt only four times.
Vince Lombardi used to talk about Paul Hornung being a back who was going to get to the end zone one way or another, even if the blocking wasn’t there. Dowdle isn’t in Hornung’s category in that area by a long shot (Hornung is a Hall of Famer) but those numbers strongly suggest that Dowdle is much more determined to cross that scoring plane than Warren is.
Moving Warren to the lightning role may also make him even more impactful in the passing game. That’s a big deal since Bijan Robinson was the only running back last year with a higher YPT (min 40 targets).
This is not to say that Warren will be phased out of the ground game. He was first in excellent YPC last year and set career highs in scrimmage plays, scrimmage yards and touchdowns. Pittsburgh is certainly going to utilize those talents, but let’s give Mike McCarthy and company credit for being flexible enough to shift Warren to a role that he is much better suited for.
That adjustment gives Pittsburgh the best of both worlds for Dowdle and Warren. It could also be enough to offset an extremely unfavorable rush defense schedule and keep the Steelers ground game on track this season.