This is the third in an eight-article series with spin it forward previews of every NFL team’s 2026 ground game, broken down by division. This edition covers the AFC South. To find out more about the format for this series, check out this post on the AFC East and the overview of my new plus/minus run blocking grading system.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Carry division type: Platoon
Platoon lightning back: Bhayshul Tuten
Platoon thunder back: Chris Rodriguez Jr.
2026 rush defense matchup points: 55
Returning offensive line starters: 5
Is Chris Rodriguez Jr. the most undervalued running back in fantasy football?
Bhayshul Tuten is the flavor of the day for fantasy managers reviewing the Jacksonville backfield, but don’t forget about Chris Rodriguez Jr. on draft day.
The Liam Coen connection is why. Coen is brilliant at building backfields around strengths and weaknesses. He’s done this with great success throughout his career, including in the 2021 season when Coen was the offensive coordinator at Kentucky and Rodriguez was his lead back. Coen’s game plans worked so well that Rodriguez racked up 1,440 scrimmage yards and set a Wildcats single season record for 100-yard rushing games.
Rodriguez hasn’t seen anywhere near that level of success since then, but that’s in part because he was working for pass-centric offensive coordinators like Eric Bieniemy and Kliff Kingsbury. Those play caller’s systems weren’t designed to get the most out of Rodriguez.
Coen knows what Rodriguez can do. Rodriguez is very skilled at between the tackles carries and getting the most out of crowded blocking conditions. This is why Rodriguez was second in good blocking YPC last year. Rodriguez scored five inside the 5-rushing touchdowns in 2025, so he is adept at goal line work.
Coen also knows how Rodriguez’s skill set dovetails with what Tuten can do.
Tuten didn’t have enough carries to rank as a qualifier last year, but all of his YPC numbers were subpar. This was in part because he was being asked to do too much between the tackles rushing. Tuten averaged only 3.4 YPC on designed between the tackles carries, versus a 5.3 YPC on designed perimeter rushes.
Blend Rodriguez and Tuten’s metrics together and you get a terrific thunder and lightning smoothie. This fits in perfectly with the early unofficial depth chart that had Tuten and Rodriguez as co-starters. Recent reports from Jaguars training camp also indicate an increased role for Rodriguez, with many writers noting he is playing exceptionally well.
Even with all of this evidence, the fantasy world still sees Tuten as a breakout lead back and views Rodriguez as being fortunate to pick up whatever work he can in this backfield.
That’s why Rodriguez has a 12th or 13th round ADP at best in 12-team leagues and is going undrafted in as many as 2/3 of fantasy leagues. Wise fantasy managers may wait until then to select him, but given Rodriguez’s potential draft day ROI, it’s easy to justify a Round 9 or 10 selection.
Houston Texans
Carry division type: Lead/alternate
Bell cow: David Montgomery
Alternate back: Woody Marks
2026 rush defense matchup points: 60
Returning offensive line starters: 2
What’s the upside for David Montgomery in this offense? Can he return to bell cow status like he had in Chicago?
Montgomery was an anomaly last year. Detroit operated a lead/alternate environment yet Jahmyr Gibbs was used so much in the passing game that Montgomery ended up with 158 rushes and 182 scrimmage plays. That’s a lot more work than most alternate backs receive.
The Texans know that the only reason Montgomery was shifted to the alternate role is because it’s a great idea to give Gibbs as many scrimmage plays as possible. Montgomery is capable of doing even more, being one of only three backs (Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs being the others) who have posted 185+ rushes at least six times since the 2019 season.
That’s why Houston is opening with the idea of a lead/alternate setup, with Montgomery as the lead and Woody Marks being the alternate, but don’t look at that as the ceiling for Montgomery. It’s entirely possible Houston moves him as close to a bell cow work level as possible.
There are many reasons the Texans will consider this. Let’s start with the fact that while Montgomery isn’t a long-distance specialist, his 9.1 plus YPC last year was much higher than Marks’ 7.4 plus YPC.
Houston also wants to go more run heavy this year. The Texans overhauled most of their offensive line with run blocking road graders like Wyatt Teller (if you like physical run blocking, you’ll get a kick out of watching Teller’s game tape). This was done to improve upon a dismal 38.3 percent plus blocking rate that ranked 26th.
Using Montgomery as much as possible on the ground will also open up more aerial opportunities for Marks. That’s key because Marks ranked ninth in YPR among the 36 running backs with 35 or more targets in 2025. The Texans would almost certainly like to see Marks’ target number move from 36 to, say, 50 or more and giving Montgomery the bulk of the carries can allow that to happen.
The caveat here is that Montgomery hasn’t run the ball 200 times in a season since 2023 and hasn’t posted more than 225 carries since 2020. It may be that coaches realize he just can’t deal with a higher work level over the course of the season.
The offset for that is that my Paydirt start-sit matchup charts show Houston as having four favorable rush defense matchups in Weeks 1-7.
Add these together and the likely scenario is that the Texans will lean on Montgomery as much as possible in the first half of the season. If he starts to wear down, that’s when they will shift from bell cow mode to lead/alternate or platoon.
Indianapolis Colts
Carry division type: Bell cow
Bell cow: Jonathan Taylor
Primary backup: DJ Giddens
2026 rush defense matchup points: 29
Returning offensive line starters: 4
Can Jonathan Taylor buck the odds and post a second consecutive season with 20+ scrimmage touchdowns?
There are six players in NFL history who have scored 20 or more scrimmage touchdowns in a season. This list includes Jonathan Taylor, LaDainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes, Marshall Faulk and Emmitt Smith.
That puts Taylor into some truly elite company, but what makes Taylor’s performance most impressive is that the others all posted their 20+ touchdowns in consecutive seasons. Taylor is the only player to do this in non-consecutive seasons, having racked up 21 scrimmage touchdowns in 2021 and then posting 20 touchdowns in 2025.
This makes it reasonable to consider whether or not Taylor can break this six-way tie by posting an NFL record third season with 20+ scores.
Can he do it? Let’s break this down by positive and negative factors.
Positive factors
Taylor was in the top four in rushing touchdowns in every plus or minus blocking category last year.
Only two of Taylor’s scrimmage touchdowns occurred after Daniel Jones got hurt. This means Taylor didn’t rack up his scores when the Colts had nowhere else to go.
Only four of Taylor’s 18 rushing touchdowns happened on plays where he broke a tackle. Three of these were downfield broken tackles that helped result in breakaway touchdowns. Taylor certainly still has the skills to make safeties miss, so that can happen again.
Another missed tackle note is that Pro Football Reference showed Taylor broke a tackle on an average of every 12 plays last year. That is just slightly better than his 12.9 career average in that category and thus can be repeated.
Taylor was second in breakaway touchdowns despite ranking 30th in breakaway blocking received. That’s an area where he could see improvement if the Colts generate a higher breakaway blocking rate for him in 2026.
Taylor had nine inside the 5-rushing touchdowns in 2025. That is a very good pace that was tied for second with two other players, but it also shows that Taylor just needs to rank in the top four in this category to post a similar number.
Indianapolis returns four offensive line starters.
Taylor doesn’t have much in the way of aerial red zone competition. Michael Pittman Jr. is now in Pittsburgh. Josh Downs caught only four inside the 10-touchdowns last year. The Colts just added Keenan Allen to the receiving mix, but he’s in his age-34 season and caught only two inside the 10-touchdowns in 2025.
Only two of Taylor’s 2025 touchdowns were on receptions. That is a number he can equal and it wouldn’t be a shock if he improved upon that total.
Now let’s review the flip side of this coin.
Negative factors
Taylor has a shaky durability track record. He has played in 17 games only twice in his NFL career. Taylor missed one game in 2020, six games in 2022, seven games in 2023 and three games in 2024. Even missing a single contest will make it that much more difficult to hit this challenging scoring mark.
This offense will be nowhere near as powerful if Alec Pierce’s injury keeps him from repeating his 2025 numbers.
This offense could take a backwards step without Pittman, who was a very good move the chains wideout.
The Indianapolis offense line does not play up to its talent level. That’s why the Colts ranked 17th in plus blocking rate last year and may not improve upon that figure.
A difficult schedule could result in a lower plus blocking rate. Indianapolis has only one favorable rush defense matchup in Weeks 1-8.
If Daniel Jones, who has never played a full 17-game campaign and who has made only 29 out of 51 potential starts the past three seasons, misses time, this offense could be stuck in neutral.
Put all of these positive and negative factors together and it shows that while it isn’t likely to happen, Taylor does have a more than reasonable chance to tally another 20+ touchdown season.
Tennessee Titans
Carry division type: Platoon
Platoon 1A: Tony Pollard
Platoon 1B: Tyjae Spears
2026 rush defense matchup points: 52
Returning offensive line starters: 3
Is this the year that the Titans finally stop giving Tony Pollard so much work?
It’s become an annual tradition of late. Every year, Tony Pollard puts up 275+ scrimmage plays and in each season he ends up at or near the bottom of the 275+ scrimmage play group in points per play (PPP) production.
That was the case in 2025. Pollard was given the ball on 275 occasions and ended up last in non-, half- and PPR PPP. This lack of production was not unnoticed, however, which is why Titans head coach Robert Saleh has repeatedly said that Pollard and Tyjae Spears are both bell cows in this offense in 2026.
Now, to be clear, bell cow is typically taken to mean a single back will claim most of the work, so we’ll translate Saleh’s words into TFS nomenclature and say that this will be a platoon backfield with Pollard as the 1A and Spears as the 1B.
Pollard earns the 1A designation because he is in rare company when it comes to elite durability. Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams are the only players with more scrimmage plays than Pollard over the past four years. That durability will be relied upon since Tennessee will be one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL this year.
Having noted this, Spears earned his promotion to the 1B role because last year he had a 9.8 plus YPC that was 1.6 yards higher than Pollard’s mark. Spears has never posted more than 152 plays in an NFL season, so there is little chance that he vaults over Pollard on the depth chart, but Saleh will aim to keep this as close to a 50/50 work split as he can.
This even division could also apply to red zone, inside the 10, and inside the 5-yard line work. Pollard scored a touchdown on all three of his plus blocking rushes inside the 10-yard line last year, but scored zero touchdowns on the nine inside the 10-rushes that had minus blocking. Spears was in the same boat, scoring touchdowns on his two plus rushes inside the 10 while not scoring on three minus rushes in that field area. Those are relatively equal performances and they suggest Saleh can divvy this valuable work in the same manner as he does the rest of the carries.
The caveat here is that the Titans talked about a split workload in 2024 and Pollard ended up with 301 scrimmage plays. Some of that was due to Spears’ aforementioned durability issues, but as long as Spears can hold up to a larger work level this year, this should be a platoon backfield all year long.