Super Bowl LX preview
The Seahawks vs Patriots matchup is a refreshing change of Super Bowl pace
One of the great things about Super Bowl LX is the newness of the teams we’re seeing in this matchup.
To be fair, the Patriots franchise has been in plenty of Super Bowls, but how many people see the Mike Vrabel/Drake Maye squad and think of this as an extension of the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady New England teams that, to be blunt, we were damn sick and tired of seeing in Super Bowls. Outside of seeing the Krafts and Josh McDaniels, this is an entirely different club.
The Mike Macdonald Seattle Seahawks are a refreshing change of Super Bowl pace. Macdonald is a brilliant coach who didn’t need anything from a Connor Stalions-type to be one of the best defensive coaches in the NCAA or NFL. His Seahawks are so good at stopping the opposition’s rushing attack that Seattle posted a 41.06 rush defense EPA in 2025. To put that into perspective, that’s only the sixth time in the past six seasons that a team has posted a 40+ rush defense EPA.
What makes that number even more impressive is that Seattle had the second lowest percentage of stacked boxes in the 2025 season (13.2 percent per the NFL Pro database). It takes a brilliant defensive play caller to post that caliber of EPA while not loading the box, but that’s just what Macdonald and defensive coordinator Aden Durde are capable of. They know how to adjust their defensive fronts to shut down the run while still playing to stop the pass.
It’s the type of Super Bowl matchup that brings to mind a change of pace Super Bowl such as Super Bowl XVI. San Francisco and Cincinnati had never been to a Super Bowl (or even an NFL or AFL title game prior to the development of the Super Bowl in 1966). Super Bowl XX (Chicago-New England) and Super Bowl XXXIV (St. Louis-Tennessee) also land in this category.
On a related note, that Rams-Titans Super Bowl XXIV game brings to mind the movie American Underdog.
I just watched that film for the first time a couple of weeks ago. I was thinking it was going to be a sappy, preachy movie, but was pleasantly surprised that it was a well-acted, well-directed story that has just a slight amount of message. Much of the movie concentrates on Kurt and Brenda Warner’s relationship and how the strength of that relationship was key to Kurt keeping his football dream alive when by all accounts it should have been dead.
This is my favorite clip from the film.
It was so down to earth that it’s played multiple times on my computer screen while doing game tape breakdowns. It felt like the kind of story that Hollywood used to tell all of the time. I enjoyed it so much that I watched it a couple of times with Mrs. Scientist. When I told her that an independent production company had produced the film, she said that she hoped this generated more than enough profit to have that company produce a lot more films like it.
Now let’s take a look at what tonight’s game has to offer.
We’ve already started with the Seahawks incredible rush defense. That could be a big problem for a New England offense that ranked 23rd in offensive rush EPA this season (-1.54).
That could mean the Patriots path to victory is through the air. New England is certainly capable of doing that following a regular season where the Patriots posted a league-leading 207 pass EPA. The problem there is Seattle had a 24.88 pass EPA allowed mark that was fourth best in that category.
Missed tackles could be a huge factor. The Patriots missed fewer tackles than any team in the NFL this season (71, per Pro Football Reference). By contrast, Seattle had the 10th highest volume of missed tackles (110). Seahawks cornerback Riq Woolen is the name to watch here. His 12.8 percent missed tackle rate is easily the highest among starting cornerbacks or safeties in this game.
As was the case in the Divisional round preview, the magic number for this contest is 20. New England is 6-3 when allowing 20+ points this year, versus an 11-0 mark when the allow fewer than 20 points. Seattle is 14-1 when scoring 20+ points this year and 2-2 when posting fewer than 20 points.
The key for the Patriots to keep the Seahawks under 20 points is stopping Jaxon Smith-Njigba. It’s possible that New England could put Christian Gonzalez on him all game long, but JSN’s route tree is expansive and Seattle’s coaching staff is very good at getting him away from man coverage.
That’s why my pick at The Athletic (which can be found in the Super Bowl 60 staff picks article) has Seattle topping that 20-point mark and winning by a 27-17 score.
Photo of the day
Today’s photo of the day was taken at the Mead Botanical Garden in Orlando. Mrs. Scientist has a knack for finding the right moment when animals are almost posing for the picture. This turtle looks like it wants her to get its good side for the picture. You can find more of her photos (and help support her budding photography career) at Flash Art Photography.
