One thought for every 2025 NFL Divisional game
Special teams could give Da Bears an NFC Championship game berth
The Wild Card round had six great matchups and four of those turned out to be great games. The Divisional round has what looks to be a fantastic quartet of games as well. Let’s dive into one thought (or more in some cases) on each of these Divisional matchups!
(Related note: I write an NFL picks article every week for The Athletic that has picks to win and picks to cover. Here is the link to this week’s Divisional edition.)
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
This game will likely be decided by the Buffalo rush offense vs Denver rush defense matchup.
The Bills ground game has been about as good as it gets of late. From Weeks 12-18, Buffalo leads the league in rush attempts, is second in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns and is fourth in yards per carry. The amazing part of that is Josh Allen rushed for only 38 yards per game in that span. That’s a very good pace but it’s not elite. This shows just how valuable James Cook is.
The Broncos may be able to offset this. Denver’s defense ranks sixth in rush yards allowed since Week 13. If the Broncos continue this pace, they should win handily. If Buffalo wins this battle, the Bills can pull off the upset.
Another major issue in this contest is Buffalo’s injuries. The Bills will be without starting safety Jordan Poyer, backup cornerback Maxwell Hairston and wide receiver Tyrell Shavers. Buffalo linebacker Terrel Bernard is questionable, as is defensive tackle Ed Oliver and running back Ty Johnson. Denver basically has no one injured (two players are listed as out but they played a total of three games this year). It’s in the Broncos favor to turn this into a depth contest.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
This game also has rushing matchup subplots. San Francisco was 3-4 this year when allowing 125+ rush yards. Seattle has rushed for 125+ yards in seven of its last nine games.
The Seahawks gave up 119 rush yards in the Week 1 loss against the 49ers, but held San Francisco to only 53 ground yards in the Week 18 contest that decided the NFC West.
Since that latter game was a slugfest, what this says is whoever controls the tempo of this game wins it. That may make San Francisco press Brock Purdy to be very aggressive in the passing game.
Another factor that could lean in the 49ers favor in a higher flying game is Sam Darnold’s oblique injury. This caused him to have a limited practice on Friday and to be listed as questionable on the Friday injury report. If Darnold is hampered by this ailment and San Francisco’s offense finds a way to get out of that Week 18 slugfest mode, it could be the path to victory for the 49ers.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Some games have a magic number for scoring. This is one of those games.
Houston is 12-0 this year when scoring 20 or more points. New England is 9-0 when allowing fewer than 20 points. The Texans are 1-5 when scoring fewer than 20 points. The Patriots are 6-3 when allowing 20+ points.
That may seem to bode well for Houston since the Texans have scored 20 or more points in eight straight games, but New England has allowed only 23 points in its last three games combined.
As great as that sounds for the Patriots, one of those games was against a Jets offense with Brady Cook under center. Another was against a Miami team that looked listless in what was Mike McDaniel’s last game with the club. The Wild Card win over the Chargers may seem more impressive, but as was noted in the one thought Wild Card review article, Los Angeles just couldn’t get anything going with Omarion Hampton hurt. Combine that with the Chargers blocking woes, Justin Herbert being banged up and it being a cross-country road matchup for LA and that’s just not a recipe for success.
This is all to say that as great as New England’s defense has played of late, a lot of it was due to favorable circumstances. The Texans offense doesn’t have Nico Collins, but this is still a platoon quite capable of posting 20+ points. If that happens, Drake Maye will need to play to that MVP candidate level against a powerhouse Houston defense or else it may be a disappointing home loss for the Patriots.
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears
Last week’s one thought preview on the NFL Wild Card games illustrated how the Rams’ pass coverage issue are leading this team to get into far too many scoreboard shootouts (defined as when each team scores 24+ points). That has not been a favorable way to go for Los Angeles this year, as the Rams are 3-4 in scoreboard shootouts this year following the Wild Card win over Carolina. Chicago is much more comfortable in scoreboard shootout mode, going 5-2 in those types of contests this season.
The Rams also have some serious special teams issue. Per PFR, Los Angeles has a posted a negative special teams expected points added (STEPA) in 13 out of its 18 games this year. By contrast, Chicago has posted a positive STEPA mark in 14 of its 18 games. Don’t be surprised if this huge special teams disparity leads to a Bears upset win in this one.
Photo of the day
Today’s photo of the day was a fun one to get. This was at Sylvan Lake Park in Sanford, FL. We had just crossed a bridge when Mrs. Scientist spotted this deer under the bridge. It turns out that the water is shallow enough that the deer (one of a family of four that lives at the park) are able to cross under it. We stayed quiet and since the deer are somewhat used to humans nearby, she was able to get an entire collection of photos, some of which were not more than 10 feet away. You can see much more of her work (and help support her budding photography career) at Flash Art Photography.